339
AXNT20 KNHC 272210 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026

Updated for details on Tropical Storm Dolly

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.7N 40.7W at 27/2100 UTC
or 1240 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 21 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently
around 12.5 ft (4.0 m). Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 240 nm in the SE semicircle and 90 nm in
the NW semicircle. Dolly is moving toward the west and this motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this
weekend. Little change in strength is likely during the next 48
hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave
before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain from Dolly could
affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall
moving into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday
and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially
in areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center t
website - https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!71VG8FKy5CyIvo9-S6qEq-_S5CWB5-FP6DpjvZFSGUivMseS6IVmFdhYEzoA8forOUX5QOVoQ_oAc8lc7hZafV8AOHQ$ and the
latest Dolly NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!71VG8FKy5CyIvo9-S6qEq-_S5CWB5-FP6DpjvZFSGUivMseS6IVmFdhYEzoA8forOUX5QOVoQ_oAc8lc7hZao2Up_Ws$ for more details.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to very
rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-
force tonight off Colombia. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!71VG8FKy5CyIvo9-S6qEq-_S5CWB5-FP6DpjvZFSGUivMseS6IVmFdhYEzoA8forOUX5QOVoQ_oAc8lc7hZafV8AOHQ$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along has emerged off the
coast of Africa and has been analyzed along 22W, south of 18N and
approaching the Cabo Verde Islands while moving westward at about
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from
07N to 14N between 21W and 26W.

A tropical wave is moving from the eastern to the central
Caribbean now along 68W, south of 20N near the Mona Passage to
portions of Venezuela, moving westward at around 20 kt. No
significant convection is observed with this wave except over the
Mona Passage and it may be helping to enhance diurnal convection
over portions of Hispaniola.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, south of 19N
to across portions of eastern Honduras and central Nicaragua,
moving quickly westward around 25 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this wave but some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible in the Gulf of Honduras area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16.5 and extends
southwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ extends from southwest of Dolly
at 08N46W to near the coast of NE Venezuela at 11N62W. Other than
the convection described with Dolly and the tropical wave above,
no significant convection is found with the monsoon trough and
ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal trough is over the north-central and NE Gulf with
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters north of 26N
and east of 94W. Otherwise, 1014 mb high pressure is centered in
the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico with light to gentle
anticyclone winds dominating the basin, locally higher in any
convection. Seas are mainly slight, except locally higher in any
convection.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
waters through early next week, supporting moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong
with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to
a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each
night. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf
waters during the next few days producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher
seas associated with these storms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia.

Other than scattered showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean
mainly south of 11N near the monsoon trough, no significant
convection is noted over the basin. Fresh to strong trades are
found from 10N to 17N with 7 to 11 ft seas. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 10N to 18N, with
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, except slight in the
lee of Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula offshore Mexico.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to
locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the
forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off
Colombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the
Windward Passage at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.7N
40.7W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 14.1N 43.9W Fri morning,
14.7N 48.5W Fri afternoon, 15.6N 53.1W Sat morning, become post-
tropical and move to 16.5N 57.3W Sat afternoon, 17.3N 61.5W Sun
morning, and dissipate Sun afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
the Tropical Storm Dolly.

A surface trough located SE of Bermuda extends from 30N59W to
22N69W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found within 90 nm
either side of the trough. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible over the western Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula.
The strongest winds away from Dolly are found offshore Africa,
north of 18N and east of 20W where fresh to strong speeds are
found. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found across the remainder
of the waters north of 15N and east of 35W. Winds are moderate or
weaker elsewhere under a relatively relaxed pressure gradient.
Mainly slight seas are found west of 70W, and moderate elsewhere
away from Dolly.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate
the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting
mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds
will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at
night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.7N 40.7W at 5 PM EDT, and
is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly
will move to 14.1N 43.9W Fri morning, 14.7N 48.5W Fri afternoon,
15.6N 53.1W Sat morning, become post-tropical and move to 16.5N
57.3W Sat afternoon, 17.3N 61.5W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun
afternoon.

$$
Lewitsky

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